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wspc_P34kO1l_0004

Page history last edited by Charles-A. Rovira 13 years, 10 months ago

wspc_P34kO1l_0004

media files:

mp3 -> http://media.libsyn.com/media/msb/wspc_P34kO1l_0004.mp3

m4a -> http://media.libsyn.com/media/msb/wspc_P34kO1l_0004.m4a

YouTube -> YouTube plugin error

Official website -> http://thefuelfilm.com/

Bed: "Wrapped in Tinfoil" by "Digital Droo" off of "Active Lancer Original Soundtrack"

Intro

M.K. Hubbert made a simple statement of fact back in 1956, back when I was three years old, which explained what had happened to the Pennsylvania oil fields and made a straight forward straight-line extrapolation as to when the oil fields in Texas and Oklahoma could be expected to run out: 1970 ± 4 years.

He was ignored because a) nobody wanted to hear him and b) he was making a scientific prediction on resource availability and the cost of extraction in the face of other factors (and it sounded about as urgent as that at the time,) but he was right within the tolerances he had specified.

The oil on the American mainland became economically irrecoverable in 1972.

If it hadn't been for the Saudi oil and gas fields being there and ruled over by potentates, like Ibn Saud, and the various emirs scattered around the middle east who lorded it over corrupt lands filled with corrupt potentates, (and the one exception, Iran, was ruled over by democratically elected Mohammed Mosaddeq until he was overthrown by the CIA in 1953 at the behest of the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, (better known as British Petroleum, [and now calling itself rather benignly "Beyond Petroleum." {a.k.a. B.P. which is utter B.S.}])

This deposition of a formally-elected civil government was "a critical event in post-war world history", because it re-installed the unpopular Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi who was even more paranoid that Richard M. Nixon and, unlike Nixon who wielded an Old Boy's Club known as the C.I.A. , instead Pahlavi had a murderously efficient Intelligence agency known as the Savak with which to repress any dissension.

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"Addicted to oil" by "Mr. Tunes"

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We've got PSAs:

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Campus Safety urges students, faculty and staff to sign up for text alerts, online @ spc.edu/alerts

This will be used to inform students, faculty and staff in an emergency.

This was useful last year in the bomb scare.

To sign up, students must know their Spirit ID # (Bring their Saint Peter's College ID)

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Bed "Machinery" by "Might Could"

There are still no prerecorded promos so I'm going to fake one right now.

How about if I tell you about "Dan and Dave on Sports in the Morning"

"Looking for quality sports talk?

Then look no further than Dan Drutz, our own assistant director of athletics, and David Freeman.

They’re here to give you all the latest news and discussion in both college and professional sports.

If you’re a sports fanatic, you won’t want to miss a second of what these two guys have to say.

So be sure to catch “Dan and Dave on Sports in the Morning.”

Every Tuesday from 11 to 12 noon. Only on WSPC: The Sound of Saint Peter’s College.

I just caught their show here in the studio and its "pretty darn good!".

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Bed "Red on white" by "Michael Ulery"

Thesis:

We're looking at the Third chapter of "The Party's OVER, Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies" by "Richard Heinberg" ISBN: 0-86571-482-7.

This chapter, entitled "Lights Out: Approaching the Historic Interval's End", delves into M.K. Hubbert and the other bunch of Cassandras who are in the rising chorus of voices warning with dry boring old statistics what is going to happen as surely as the sun will rise tomorrow.

"Blood Is Thicker Than Oil" by "The Undercover Hippy"

Bed: "Wrapped in Tinfoil" by "Digital Droo" off of "Active Lancer Original Soundtrack"

Synthesis:

This third chapter, entitled "Lights Out", introduces us to the history of oil extraction, history being a relative term, since it starts in 1859 and the present is only 150 years later.

But it goes into what we've done during these hundred and fifty years.

The story of energy, and specifically the story of oil, is the story of economics, meaning supply and demand.

We are starting to be engaged in the ultimate fight for a dwindling supply, and there is no doubt about that [ http://europe.theoildrum.com/node/4724 ] one quote says "The peakists have won ... to the peakists I say, you can declare victory. You are no longer the beleaguered small minority of voices crying in the wilderness. You are now mainstream. You must learn to take yes for an answer and be gracious in victory."

The source of the quote [ http://www.peakoiltaskforce.net/ ] is the British government, conceding that peak oil is a fact.)

We are facing an increasing demand expected to 40 billion  barrels per years, or up by 60% from the levels of the turn of the millennium.

M.K. Hubbert back in the 1950s saw the equations written on the wall.

They spelt out, with mathematical certainty, the curves that the oil and gas fields production yields would trace as the fields reached their maturity (some would say their senescence!)

The chapter is very boring, showing with charts, tables, graphs and power point types of crap that they were well aware or what was going to happen, when it was likely to happen, followed by charts showing what happened when it did happen.

Most of the field yields, of all of the major and the minor oil producers, are examined, in detail.

Some of the other major peak oil Cassandras, people like Kenneth S. Deferyes, L.F. Ivanhoe, Walter Youngquist, amongst others are quoted as well.

Being fair, Hubbert Critics are also given a place.

But there seems something rather Pollyanna about economists piping up about about supply and demand and Pareto curves etcetera, when there is so much they know nothing about,

(lets be honest here, John Kenneth Galbraith and John Maynard Keynes, or even Karl Polanyi, don't strike me as the kind of men one finds up in a derrick wrestling with multi-ton equipment while suspended above a gantry floor.

[Pushing a pencil and making a chart does not give one any perspective nor does it have any influence on what the oil people already know: Like  blood draining into the desert sands, "Oil Is Running Out!"])

The point is made, at length and in detail, that peak oil is made up of many little peaks which add up to one big peak.

The book then makes the points for damn near everybody before closing the chapter with the question:  "Who Is Right? Why Does It Matter?"

The point is very ably made that the state of the economy of course influences some of the timing and in turn the timing of events in our economy is dependent on the state of events.

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"Computer Bitch" by: "Blood Bank"

Bed: "Bomb In A Suede Smoking Jacket" by: "Juliet Hotel" off of: "Sojourn"

Conclusion:

There have been a lot of people involved in telling us the truth which we have not heard because, until the coming of the web, the distribution and dissemination organs were too tightly controlled.

All governmental channels only want you to hear how wonderful "The Great Leader"©™® is, right up until they take "The Great Leader"©™® out to a basement somewhere and shoot or hang him  ) or

There is more money to be made selling your ears to "The Good News ©™®" about some "schmijick" or other, paid for by the munificence of some "schmijick" maker or other.

"You want to know about what?

Hey Joe!? ... We got a sponsor called "Peak Oil? ...

Nah? ... Can't help ya..."

But the voices are starting to make a insistent  sussurous [ http://www.globaliamagazine.com/?id=482 ].

Next time we'll explore chapter Four: "Non-Petroleum Energy Sources: Can The Party Continue?"

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"stop writing songs about california" by "Mellow Core"

Bed "Forensic" by: "Nick Murray"

Outro

Go and get the book "The Party's OVER, Oil, War and the Fate of Industrial Societies" by "Richard Heinberg" ISBN: 0-86571-482-7.

You can even go and re-bury your head in the sand afterward.

But you should know what's going to happen and let it guide you and your decisions.

By the way, msbpodcasts (which now includes this show, PeakOil, the thrice a week classical show ThymeWarp, both of which are being recorded for St. Peter's College,  as well as the occasional piece I'm doing for my original audience of MSers,) is now showing download statistics around 102,000 downloads.

It seems to be just as popular as it ever was. And I'm getting an evaluation from my Radio II teacher so that it can get better.

(But there are issues and techniques which don't apply with podcasts. (a weather or traffic or news report would be worse than noise

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This episode featured the following music:

Bed: "Wrapped in Tinfoil" by "Digital Droo" off of "Active Lancer Original Soundtrack"

"Addicted to oil" by "Mr. Tunes"

Bed "Red on white" by "Michael Ulery"

"Blood Is Thicker Than Oil" by "The Undercover Hippy"

Bed: "Wrapped in Tinfoil" by "Digital Droo" off of "Active Lancer Original Soundtrack"

"Computer Bitch" by: "Blood Bank"

Bed: "Bomb In A Suede Smoking Jacket" by: "Juliet Hotel" off of: "Sojourn"

"stop writing songs about california" by "Mellow Core"

Bed "Forensic" by: "Nick Murray"

 

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